You’re right about what “minimum gaps” means. However, there is a circular reasoning issue which can affect some frames/systems and can keep Dorico from providing the expected results.
That seems to be what’s happening in your case. If you look at the frame fullness indicator in Engrave mode, your first page is at 114%; Dorico won’t normally produce a page that overfull. My guess is that Dorico estimated that it could fit 4 systems on that page, respecting your minimum gaps, and then ran into problems making it happen.
If you add a frame break at the beginning of the 4th system, things will look much better. (Though it seems to me that everything looks a little tight with that spacing. You may be happier either increasing the inter-system gap so that Dorico only puts 3 systems on a page, or reducing your space size so that each system is a little smaller.)